2016 saw a repositioning of the pieces on the geopolitical board, with shocks such as the rise of populism and rejection of globalism, Britons voting to leave the EU, the failed coup in Turkey, Russia's military intervention in Syria, the end of America's pivot to Asia, and so on.
But perhaps the biggest surprise of all was the November election of Donald Trump, whose "Make America Great Again" slogan could suggest a world with no global leader.
"The triumph of 'America first' as the primary driver of foreign policy in the world's only superpower marks a break with decades of US exceptionalism and a belief in the indispensability of US leadership, however flawed and uneven," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan wrote in the firm's annual overview of top risks.
"With it ends a 70-year geopolitical era of Pax Americana, one in which globalization and Americanization were tightly linked, and American hegemony in security, trade, and promotion of values provided guardrails for the global economy," they continued. "In 2017, we enter a period of geopolitical recession."
We put together Eurasia Group's top 10 risks for 2017, along with its analysis of the risks and, as a bonus, a list of red herrings:
1. Independent America
President-elect Donald Trump's "America first" philosophy rejects the traditional Wilsonian approach to foreign policy centered on US-backed international alliances and institutions and instead sees multilateral institutions and international affairs as transactional. Rather than aiming for longer-term global order and common values, Trump believes the US should act on near-term national interests and should be more flexible in dealing with rapid shifts on the global stage.
This creates pockets of political risk. Chief among them, according to Eurasia Group: near-term chaos that comes from an absent superpower, broader weakening of institutional architecture, the rise of China and a growing potential for direct conflict with the US, and the fact that "Russia can act as a rogue and disrupter — and get away with it."
Source: Eurasia Group
2. China overreacts
2017 is a big year for the Communist Party of China. In autumn, the party will host the 19th National Congress, which will determine the top leadership and set up the country's political future.
"Two risks flow from the upcoming power consolidation," according to Eurasia Group. "First, because [Chinese President Xi Jinping] will be extremely sensitive to external challenges to his country's interests at a time when all eyes are on his leadership, the Chinese president will be more likely than ever to respond forcefully to foreign policy challenges. Spikes in US-China tensions are the likely outcome.
"Second, by prioritizing stability over difficult policy choices in the run-up to the party congress, Xi may unwittingly increase the chances of significant policy failures."
Source: Eurasia Group
3. A weaker Merkel
After years of strong German leadership in the EU, Chancellor Angela Merkel now faces various political and economic challenges including ongoing domestic dissatisfaction with the refugee crisis, corporate crises such as Deutsche Bank, and the rise of populism.
Heading into the September 2017 elections, she faces no serious opposition. However, she will need to appease far-right critics, which "will leave her a diminished figure," according to Eurasia Group.
Moreover, her position on the geopolitical front is disintegrating as well. And should National Front leader Marine Le Pen be elected president in France and call a referendum on EU membership, then "her government will become Merkel's antagonist."
Source: Eurasia Group
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